The British pound has marked the first anniversary of the Brexit vote with a small rally, up 0.35% to $1.2725. City experts, though, have shown that sterling has had a pretty awful year.
The European Central Bank has launched a bid to wrestle control of London’s euro-clearing market.
David Madden of CMC Markets says growth fears weighed on the markets today, despite French GDP being revised up early this morning:
Stock markets have fallen yet again as the disinflation fear is still doing the rounds. Oil may have recouped some of its losses today but the commodity has dropped a considerable amount since the start of the year and dealers are worried take it will put downward pressure on inflation. The cost of living in the eurozone and the US is softening already, and when you factor the recent losses in the oil market its points to a continuation of weaker inflation.
Traders are anxious it could turn into weaker growth rates, and the high hopes that they had for 2017 may not be met.
Back in Greece, protests are set to intensify over the weekend as unions step up calls on Athens’ leftist-led government to grant better employment rights – not least extension of short term contracts that could say protestors put up to 10,000 out of work.
Announcing that walkouts by rubbish collectors and other municipal workers would continue until Monday, Nikos Trakas, who heads the union representing municipal employees, said the government couldn’t hide behind legal argument in its refusal to put contract workers, now facing joblessness, in permanent positions.
“A government … can’t come back two and a half years later and say there is a problem with constitutionality,” he said.
“‘We are talking about ten thousand people and if they leave, local government in its entirety will dissolve.”
Piles of refuse have collected across Athens and with temperatures set to climb to 36 degrees Celsius by Sunday the strike is causing mounting concerns at a time of rising tourism.
Constantine Michalos, president of the Athens chamber of commerce, which represents over 100,000 businesses, issued an urgent appeal this afternoon for both workers and the government to return to the negotiating table.
“Everyone has to try to limit the obstacles that diminish the growth prospects of the country by limiting claims to rights,” he said adding that it made no sense that “vested interests” should prevail at such a critical time.
Just in: America’s private sector is slowing this month.
Factory activity across the US rose at its slowest rate in nine months, according to data firm Markit.
Companies reported that output and new business growth both slowed compared to May.
This dragged Markit’s ‘composite PMI’, which measures activity across the private sector, down to a three month low of 53.0, from 53.6. That shows slower growth.
But on the upside, job creation picked up and new orders hit a five-month high.
Businesses also restocked their inventories, suggesting more optimism about the future.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, says America’s economy is ending the current quarter on “a softer note”. That may mean that growth isn’t as strong as hoped, after a weak start to 2017.
“The average expansion seen in the second quarter is down on that seen in the first three months of the year, indicating a slowing in the underlying pace of economic growth.
While official GDP data are expected to turn higher in the second quarter after an especially weak start to the year (our recent GDP tracker based on various official and survey data points to 3.0% growth), the relatively subdued PMI readings suggest there are some downside risks to the extent to which GDP will rebound.
Back in the UK, the Serious Fraud Office has closed a probe into whether the Bank of England broke the law during the financial crisis.
After a two-year investigation, the SFO has concluded there is “no evidence of criminality” related to the emerging lending measures that the BoE took, to prevent the financial markets seizing up.
The SFO had been looking into whether any assistance was given to certain financial institutions to enable them to bid successfully for the available funding, to the possible detriment of other institutions.
Surprise inflation data from Canada have sent the Canadian dollar sliding.
Consumer prices across Canada fell by 0.2% during May (on a seasonally adjusted basis0) due to falling goods and energy prices.
That dragged the annual inflation rate down to just 1.3%, down from 1.6% in April (and much weaker than Britain’s 2.9% inflation rate). Economists had expected a smaller fall, to 1.5%.
The Canadian dollar promptly fell to 75.23 cents against the US dollar, from 75.6, as traders concluded that this creates less pressure to raise interest rates.
“Taking back control” was a key message for the campaign to leave the EU last year.
And today, the European Central Bank has launched a new bid to take control of the euro clearing market, currently centred in London.
The clearing market is the point in the system where derivatives contracts are settled. It is meant to reduce financial risk, by using central counterparties who can prevent one default triggering a wave of forced sales and margin calls.
The ECB has proposed adjusting its statute, to give it authority to oversee the clearing of euro-demominated securities. That could be the prelude to moving the market into the eurozone, or more control over activities in London.
My colleague Jill Treanor explains:
London is facing renewed pressure over its dominance of the €1tn (£880bn) a day euro clearing market after the European Central Bank set out proposals aimed at giving it more oversight of the lucrative business.
The move by the Frankfurt-based ECB - the central bank for the 19 countries using the euro - follows a report by the European commission which called for the EU to have more powers over clearing of financial products denominated in euros after Brexit.
The City dominates the market of clearing, a process which is supposed to reduce the risks of complex financial transactions by matching buyers and sellers as well as reduce the cost of trading, through so-called central counterparties (CCPs).....
Both the Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos and the economics and development minister Dimitris Papadimitriou have flown to London and the US respectively in a bid to attract investors.
Tsakalotos, who was raised in Britain, is, say officials, on a mission to persuade interlocutors that Greece is now on a path of recovery, with a clear stretch ahead of it, following last week’s crucial decision to disburse a further €8.5bn euro in rescue funds to avert default.
Papadimitiou, long-time economics professor at Bard College, has been in New York with leading businessmen and Geoffrey Pyatt, the US ambassador to Greece, attending the sixth Greek investment programme whose working title is “Greece at a turning point.”
It is hoped that both visits will increase appetite for bonds now that yields have dropped markedly since the euro group decision.
Foreign investment, though once a dirty word for prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ leftist-led government, is seen as imperative for kick-starting the economy – and tackling an unemployment rate of 23%. Economists say that budget cut savings are simply not enough after eight years of gruelling austerity to spur growth.
Just in: the UK public’s inflation expectations have risen slightly, as the Bank of England argues over whether to raise interest rates or not.
The public now expect inflation to average 3.1% in the long term, up from 3.0% a month ago.
Expectations for the year ahead have inched a little higher too, to 2.62%.
Inflation actually hit 2.9% last month, and some economists see it heading higher.
But Christian Schulz, economist at Citi, says the survey doesn’t suggest the BoE should aggressively hike interest rates:
“Expectations are close to long-run averages, but strong upward momentum that would call for urgent monetary tightening is absent in our view”
Outgoing BoE policymaker Kristin Forbes may not agree. Last night, she gave a speech arguing that the Bank is ‘behind the curve’ and suggesting that some policymakers were too hesitant to raise borrowing costs.
Attention, eurozone crisis watchers. The BBC World Service covering the Greek debt crisis, looking at this month’s bailout and the long-term cost of austerity
It includes contributions from our Athens correspondent Helena Smith, and is being streamed here:
Greece has been through dark economic times over the past decade. Last week a European Union loan of 8.5bn Euros enabled Greece to meet its latest debt payments. The IMF says this deal will help Greece stand on its own feet again over the course of the next year. But after the years of austerity and hardship, do the Greek people believe this will do anything to improve their lives?
For Newshour Extra this week, Owen Bennett Jones is in Athens to discuss the consequences of living with long-term austerity and the prognosis for economic recovery.
Back on the Brexit anniversary....analysts are pointing out that there’s a notable shift between the fortunes of UK-focused companies, and those with an international outlook.
Those multinational firms have enjoyed a real surge in their value, up 28% in the last year, as the weak pound boosts the value of their overseas earning.
But UK-centric firms have actually fallen in value, by 5% in sterling terms, due to worries over the UK economy
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG in the UK, has crunched the numbers:
“The KPMG Non-UK 50, which represents the largest companies with more than 70% of their market outside the UK, is up a remarkable 28% since the EU referendum - significantly outperforming the world’s largest indices, while the FTSE 100 climbed 17% over the same period.
In contrast, the KPMG UK50, which represents the largest FTSE companies with over 70% of their market in the UK, is down 5%. Put in pounds and pence, this equates to a £330 billion rise in the value of the KPMG Non-UK50 and a £19 billion loss for their domestic equivalent.
Neil Wilson of ETX Capital has shown how mining companies (Glencore and Antofagasta), consumer giants (Unilever and Diageo) and banks (HSBC) have driven the rally.
Over in parliament, a delicious battle is brewing over the top job on the Treasury select committee, one of the most powerful oversight roles in Westminster.
Several MPs have a burning desire to succeed Andrew Tyrie, the former chair, who stepped down as an MP at the general election.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the eurosceptic, old-school Tory, is keen, and had been seen as a front-runner.
But he’s now facing a challenge from former minister Nicky Morgan, a fellow Conservative, who has thrown her hat into the ring this morning:
Rees-Mogg is one of those politicians who divides opinions, and there are signs that some MPs are determined to thwart him.
Some Labour MPs are organising to thwart Mr Rees-Mogg, although they have not yet decided who to support. “The idea is to simply stop Mogg,” said one Labour MP. “It almost doesn’t matter who the candidate is, we just don’t want him.”
They argue that his role at Somerset Capital Management could pose a conflict of interests. Many also believe that as an ardent supporter of the UK leaving the EU he may not pursue sufficient scrutiny of the government’s Brexit plans.
Wes Streeting, who has served on the TSC for the last couple of years (alongside Rees-Mogg), says he’s backing Morgan..
Sterling is marking the first anniversary of the EU referendum with a small rally.
The pound is up half a cent against the US dollar at $1.2728. That means it’s still worth 14% less than before the Brexit vote, after a year of heightened volatility.
And with Brexit talks getting underway in Brussels, the pound still looks exposed to further twists and turns.
Graham Bishop, Investment Director at Heartwood Investment Management explains:
“Sterling’s devaluation in response to the shock UK referendum result has been the most significant market event in recent years.
It has yet to materially recover from its post-referendum low and now remains vulnerable to even more political and economic uncertainty.
Paul McNamara of asset management firm GAM shows how the UK has been the worst-performing major currency over the last year:
Katie Martin of the FT has dug deep into the Bloomberg terminal, and found a couple of currencies who did even worst than the pound (the Congolese franc and the Uzbekistan soum)
Tara Cunningham of the Telegraph shows how the FTSE has benefitted from the pound’s weakness:
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